Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Why YHOO Will Outperform GOOG in 2007

I have been telling people lately that I thought GOOG was overpriced and to sell what they owned. Was thinking about Yahoo's recent leaked memo about cutting the workforce and then I saw the following article:

Paul Kedrosky's Infectious Greed: Why YHOO Will Outperform GOOG in 2007:


  • Yahoo needs to grow earnings faster than Google to regain investor interest

  • It can do that by cutting costs, growing audience, acquisitions or improving monetization (or some combination of all four)

  • It is easier to drive monetization than to increase audience markedly, and acquisitions are a mug's game without better monetization tools. Cutting costs is a non-starter.

  • Yahoo trumps Google on total audience, as well as page views

  • Yahoo's monetization is about to improve (to some degree) because of Panama

  • It is easier for Yahoo to make a significant improvement in monetization than it is for Google.

  • Google's monetization engine works well, while Yahoo's doesn't. It's always easier to get a big change from a crummy start position than it is to make a big change from a great start position.
  • Yahoo's stock is hated, while Google's is loved.

  • Yahoo will outperform Google (and the market) in 2007

All good points. Time to put the technical indicators back on Yahoo and look for some buy signals.


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