Friday, November 17, 2006

The Stock Market Report That Wall Street Does Not Want You To Read

by: David Jenyns

The best way to maximize your profits is to be prepared to give some back to the Stock Market. When most traders first hear this, they are a little taken back. Why would you give any of your profits back to the Stock market; because you are never going to be able to exit right at the peak of the Stock market trend. But, you can still stay with the trend as it develops, and let your profits run in the Stock market. Then, when the price turns, you can exit.

Traditionally, an inexperienced trader will exit a position once they see a little bit of a profit in their trading account. They want to crystallize that profit immediately. People don`t like to lose, and they believe that those profits, made in the Stock Market, are their profits, and once they have them, they don`t want to risk giving them back to the Stock market.

Is the Stock market strategy written about in this article doomed to failure, since it breaks one of the cardinal rules of trading; to let your profits run? It is always wise to implement cardinal rules like this, but how do you implement this in the Stock market? Well, after you`ve defined your trading float, set your maximum loss, calculated your stop losses, and also calculated your position sizing - you can determine how to handle profits.

Once you`ve set your initial stop loss, you`ve ensured a mechanism to cut your losses short. Now you need to introduce a rule that allows your profits to run. By simply setting these two rules, you can control two important variables - whether or not you make a profit, and how much profit you`re going to make.

Of the two types of exits you use in the Stock market, hopefully it`s the ones we`re about to discuss now that you`ll get to implement more often, as these are the ones that are implemented once you`re in a profitable situation. Trailing stop losses will allow you to follow a trend as it develops in the Stock market, and exit the position at the point where you can realistically maximize your profits.

A simple example can illustrate the importance of a trailing stop loss. If you received a buy signal and purchased XYZ, and set your initial stop loss, you`d be sure to keep your losses small. But, your initial stop does not move. What happens if, after purchasing XYZ, the asset runs up a few hundred percent?

Unless you have a way to lock in the profit, you could keep that position until the share reverts all the way back down to your stop loss, where you would exit the trade. You would end up losing money even though there`s potential for some fantastic gains.

Obviously, you need to have a way to keep a situation like this from ever happening, and that`s exactly what a trailing stop does. This form of stop is adjusted on a periodic basis according to a mathematical formula that keeps it moving upward as the price moves upward.

After the first day of trading, if the price moves in your favour, or even if the shares volatility shrinks, then the trailing stop is moved in your favour. If the Stock Market then moved against you enough for your stop to be triggered, you would still take a loss, but it would not be as large as your initial stop loss.

The key to the trailing stop loss in the Stock market is that you need to adjust the asset continually to make sure that the stop is moved in your favour. A trailing stop loss is calculated in a way that is very similar to the way we calculated our initial stop loss. The only difference being rather than calculating our trailing stop loss from the entry price, we`re calculating our stop loss from the highest price since entry.

With a trailing stop loss in place, you will be able to let your profits run, and let your trading system deliver the maximum profit in the Stock Market.

About The Author

David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it comes to designing profitable stock trading systems. Discover the "secret formula" of trading that anyone can use to consistently generate BIG profits from the market by downloading your FREE copy of David's new Ultimate Stock Trading Systems course. Click Here To Download ==> Stock Trading Systems

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Stocks - Getting Started in the Market

by: Joseph Kenny

Hollywood loves the stock market. The chaos of the stock exchange floor, the tension of boiler room day-trading, devious power brokers making back room deals; it all makes for great drama. Then you have the true-to-life stock market stories in the news: insider trading, big money IPOs, the dot com bust. All of it is enough to make you steer clear of the market for good and travel down a safer investment path. But don’t be frightened, history shows that long-term, there’s no better place to put your money to watch it grow. Here are a few tips to get you started.

Stocks 101

Simply put, when you purchase stock in a company, you become part-owner of that company. Along with other shareholders, you all combine as investors in the business, and therefore reap its rewards, or suffer its losses. Stocks are most commonly divided into separate categories depending on the size and type of the company (e.g., mid-cap, small-cap, energy, tech, etc.).

While speculation can drive stock prices in the short term, it’s long-term company earnings that determine a stocks gains or losses. Speaking of short term, that’s when stocks are extremely volatile. Over a span of just a few months or years, stocks can climb to astronomic heights or drop to pitiful lows. But, since 1926, the average stock has returned over 10 percent per year. That’s better than any other investment vehicle out there, and that’s why stocks are your best bet for long-term investment.

Picking Stocks

Before you dive head-first into the market, there are a few things you should know about picking stocks. First, the market’s performance as a whole is not necessarily a reflection of its individual stocks. Good stocks can keep growing even in a down market, while bad stocks have the frustrating tendency to drop or remain stagnant in a strong market.

Also, remember that history is not indicative of a stock’s future performance. Even solid stocks can slip from time to time. Remember that stock prices are based on a company’s earnings outlook, not its past performance. If the future looks bright for a company, a $100 dollar stock is probably a good buy. If earnings look less than promising, even a $5 stock can be a waste. Finally, investors determine a stock’s value by measuring a handful of primary criteria, most notably cash flow, earnings, and revenue.

“Diversify”

It’s the rallying cry of all smart investors. When compiling an investment portfolio of stocks, it’s smart to own shares in companies from several different industries. Consider it a “hedge bet”. When one part of the economy experiences a downturn, you’ll have other stocks in your portfolio to put your faith in.

When building your portfolio, the safest bet is to pick from financially strong businesses with earnings growth above the average. Surprisingly, that limits the lot to choose from, as only around 200 stocks today fit that bill. A solid portfolio features somewhere in the ballpark of 20 stocks selected from seven or more industries. A general rule of thumb is to invest in stocks with an above-average rate of growth and reasonable valuations.
Buy and Hold

Day trading is a great way to lose your nest egg, but quick. As we noted before, stocks over the short term are highly volatile. Sure, brokers today are offering cheap trades, but beware. There are a ton of hidden fees and taxes involved with day trading, not to mention the amount of attention required by you to monitor the blow-by-blow proceedings of the market. Our recommendation: buy and hold. A ten percent return over the long term is nothing to sneer at.

About The Author

Joseph Kenny writes for the Loans Store which offers more information on home loans, secured loans and other loan topics available on site. Visit Today: http://www.ukpersonalloanstore.co.uk

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Monday, November 13, 2006

Dealing With Market Corrections: Ten Do’s and Don’ts

A correction is a beautiful thing, simply the flip side of a rally, big or small. Theoretically, even technically I’m told, corrections adjust equity prices to their actual value or “support levels”. In reality, it’s much easier than that. Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit taking. The two former “becauses” are more potent than ever before because there is more “self directed” money out there than ever before. And therein lies the core of correctional beauty! Mutual Fund unit holders rarely take profits but often take losses. Opportunities abound!

Here’s a list of ten things to do and/or to think about doing during corrections of any magnitude:

1. Your present Asset Allocation should have been tuned in to your goals and objectives. Resist the urge to decrease your Equity allocation because you expect a further fall in stock prices. That would be an attempt to time the market, which is (rather obviously) impossible. Proper Asset Allocation has nothing to do with market expectations.

2. Take a look at the past. There has never been a correction that has not proven to be a buying opportunity, so start collecting a diverse group of high quality, dividend paying, NYSE companies as they move lower in price. I start shopping at 20% below the 52-week high water mark, and the shelves are full.

3. Don’t hoard that “smart cash” you accumulated during the last rally, and don’t look back and get yourself agitated because you might buy some issues too soon. There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy.

4. Take a look at the future. Nope, you can’t tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality equities now (as you certainly could be) you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time. as you take yet another round of profits. Smiles broaden with each new realized gain, especially when most folk are still head scratchin’.

5. As (or if) the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely. Hope for a short and steep decline, but prepare for a long one. There’s more to Shop at The Gap than meets the eye.

6. Your understanding and use of the Smart Cash concept has proven the wisdom of The Investor’s Creed. You should be out of cash while the market is still correcting. [It gets less and less scary each time.] As long your cash flow continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual issue.

7. Note that your Working Capital is still growing, in spite of falling prices, and examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase yield (on fixed income securities). Examine both fundamentals and price, lean hard on your experience, and don’t force the issue.

8. Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on value stocks; it’s just easier, as well as being less risky, and better for your peace of mind. Just think where you would be today had you heeded this advice years ago.

9. Examine your portfolio’s performance: with your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus; in terms of market and interest rate cycles as opposed to calendar Quarters (never do that) and Years; and only with the use of the Working Capital Model, because it allows for your personal asset allocation. Remember, there is really no single index number to use for comparison purposes with a properly designed value portfolio.

10. Finally, ask your broker/advisor why your portfolio has not yet surpassed the levels it boasted five years ago. If it has, say thank you and continue with what you’ve been doing. This one is like golf, if you claim a better score than the reality, you’ll eventually lose money.

11. One more thought to consider. So long as everything is down, there is nothing to worry about.

Corrections (of all types) will vary in depth and duration, and both characteristics are clearly visible only in institutional grade rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable (kind of like men, I’m told); the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. Most corrections are “45s” (August and September, ‘05), and difficult to take advantage of with Mutual Funds. But amid all of this uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact: there has never been a correction that has not succumbed to the next rally… its more popular flip side. So smile through the hum drum Everydays of the correction, you just might meet Peggy Sue tomorrow.

About the Author

Steve Selengut
Professional Investment Portfolio Manager since 1979
BA Business, Gettysburg College; MBA Professional Management, Pace U.
Author of: “The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read”, and “A Millionaire’s Secret Investment Strategy”

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Sunday, November 12, 2006

The Gap Stock Trading Technique

My trading style consist of one search everyday after the markets are closed. I do a search of stocks that increased a minimum of 500% + above the average trading volume. From there I only look at the ones that were positive for the day. Then I check the charts of these stocks to see if they gapped up for the day. The gap up has to be bascially an all time high or a few years all time high. It is better if there is a base prior to these gaps. If it is uptrending that is ok. Then I check the news once I narrowed it down to see if there was postive related news. There must be positive related news. The news must be better than expected, highest quarterly earnings, or anything similar. That is it in a nutshell folks. Usually, I start the day with about 50-70 stocks. Then it is narrowed down to 30 or so. Finally, after reviewing the charts I get anything from 0-4 that made the cut. Most days I recieve 0, which is fine because on the days I find something it is all good.

Buying and Holding:

If there is one I like and would buy; I try to put an order in for the next day. How long do I hold these stocks when I buy. I hold for a little as 5 weeks, but I'm seeing better returns in about 10 weeks. Once in a stock I watch it to see if it can hold a 10 DMA line. I won't sell unless it goes below the 50 DMA or if it goes down to fill the gap. Even if it is at the 50 DMA and I have some gain I'll hold till I find the next stock I think will be a winner.

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My Trading Technique

Although there are many different trading styles and techniques that have been used to great effect by many different ( sometimes very rich) traders, it is not really a good idea to keep on trying out different techniques for different stocks and just hope that "if it worked for them, it will work for me". To make a system successful you need to know what you are doing. I do not mean that you need to understand it as it is written by the person that is giving you the information. I could easily red Bill Gates's story about how he had an idea and thought that it would work. I could follow every step that he did and make all of the same decisions, but would I make the same kind of profit that he has? I think that (although it is a nice idea), I would be lucky to break even. But why can I not replicate his success? Because the market conditions are different and what will work has changed.

But even in the financial markets, just because someone has had success with a system, that does not mean that the same system will make you the same money. Although it sounds as though this should be possible, the facts do not bear it out. If it was this easy then everyone that read Warren Buffets book and applied it in the way that he does, would make the same amount of money. The reason that they do not is not the fault of the system, but of the choices that people make when they use the system and their reaction to the conditions that are prevailing in the market at the time. Most of the well known trading systems are well tried and work well. That is the reason that they are well known. After all if they did not work then no one would bother with them. But it does show you that there are many ways (with apologies to those of you with pets!), to skin a cat. The reason that different traders are successful with different systems is because they have learned how to make a system work for them.
The trading system that I use is not complicated and if you learn it well and how you can use it in reaction to market changes, then you can use it to make a great deal of money. It is a very simple system and because of that, there is less room for error. But you still need to get to know it and how it works, so that you are able to read the markets with these tools so you make the right choices.

The system uses a search of the days trading as it's basis. Each day you need to make a search of the days trading and the stocks that have had the best increases. You need to do this after that market are closed so that you get a consistency of results that are not affected by the trading that happens after you have looked the stocks, when you are still researching others. So wait until the markets are closed and then start your research and then all of your results will be consistent.

You need to do a search for stocks that grained at least 500% above the average trading volume of the rest of the market. Do not look at the stocks that were just under this or were close to it. Just look at the stocks that were 500% above the trading volume average. This will mean that you can get a good consistent result that you can analyze. From the stocks that you find, just look at the ones that were positive for that day. Make sure that you follow this carefully. If there is a stock that looks good, but does not fulfill this criteria then do not do not use it. If you are going to follow a system, then you need to follow it properly to make sure that it works and that you are not changing it by adding things that may affect the final answer.

You also need to check the variables to see if they gapped up for the day. You make sure that this is not just a one day thing you need to check that this is an all time high. This will make sure that you are on the right track. Even if it is not then you might still be able to use it but you need to make sure that it is a definitive movement and is not just a market shift that will get set back the next day. You need to make sure that the move is fundamental. If it is not an all time high then you should make sure that it is the best that it has been for a few years. You need to make sure that the move is positive, so it is much better for these purposes if there is actually a good base to the stock before any of these gaps occurred. And if the turn is upward, then that is also a good indicator.

Next you need to do some research to make sure that the result that you have found is actually real and that there is a good basis for the change in the values and that the are not going to suddenly drop. The best way to do this is by checking the news about the stock. This is a good way to find out if there is a reason for the move and to work out if it is likely to continue the trend or not. You need to find some positive news about the stock to justify the price, so that you know that it is not just a blip. You need to find something that is positive, such as better than expected earnings. Any good news that might mean that the price rise is consistent with an actual increase in the real, or perceived, value of the stock.

That is really the basis of this system of trading. It is simple to learn, but very effective as there are few things that even a beginner can get wrong. The trick is to learn the best places that you can do your research accurately. If you find a stock that fulfill the criteria on the figures but is not bourne out by the news then leave it. There is always another that will. Usually The day begins with around 50-70m stocks, but as you begin to use the system you will find that this is reduced to around 30 or so. When you review the charts and make all of the decisions dispassionately and based on the system, you usually end up with nothing.

This is not a problem if you are not left with anything at all. You are not doing this to buy for the sake of it and if there is no stocks that are suitable then you need to wait until there are. Do not think of it as a lack of profit, think of it as a good way of avoiding loss. And when you do find a potential profit maker, then you will know that there is a good reason to buy and that you are very likely to make a profit.

When find something that is good, then you should try to buy as soon as you are able to. If it is possible, then you should try to put in an order for it the very next day so that you do not miss out on any profit. When you buy you need to make sure that you only keep them for as long as it is profitable to do so. Very often you can hold on to them for as little as 5 weeks. But very often it is better you take a bit longer than this to make sure that you get the most from it. Do not try to go for the quick profit when, by delaying a bit, you might make a lot more. Very often you need around 10 weeks to make sure of a good profit.

A good indicator of this is if the stocks able to keep a 10 DMA line. It is not usually a good idea to sell unless it goes below a 50 DMA line. But if it reduces to fill the gap then that may be good. But even if the stock is at 50 DMA and there is already some profit in it, then it might be a good idea to keep it until you find the next stock that looks profitable according to the system.

This system is a very simple way to find the best profitable stocks and to make sure you avoid the potential loss makers. But if you decide to use this system then you need to make sure that you follow it well and do not allow you own opinions to cloud your view of what are the best stocks to buy. That way you will be more likely to make a good, consistent profit.

About the Author

Mark CrispThe Momentum Stock Trader http://www.stressfreetrading.com http://www.daytradeformoney.com

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