Saturday, June 20, 2009

Best/Worst Analyst Rated Companies - Our Take

Bloomberg provides a score for companies within the S&P 500 based on an average of all analyst ratings from the street. Below is a table highlighting companies with the best analyst ratings, largest increase in rating, highest price targets, and worst analyst ratings and the valuation attractiveness of each of these companies based on The Applied Finance Group's (AFG) valuation model.

Companies within each of these groups are ranked from most attractive from a valuation perspective to the least attractive. VE.com will actively track the performance of these recommendations and see how they stack up to the analyst recommendations in each group. AFGview.com, AFG's professional investor website allows you to compare any company using their rating versus the consensus ratings of the sell side. If you are interested in an analysis on a specific company, contact afgsales@afgltd.com.

Stock Research Rating

AFG's Valuation Model - Using AFG's modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers. AFG's Value Score - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock's current trading price and AFG's current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.


ValueExpectations.com, by the founders of The Applied Finance Group and Toreador Research and Trading, provides institutional quality research to the investment community. Select Research Topics Include: Equity Valuation Analysis; Management Quality; Market Outlook and Impact Discussions; Recent Market Movement Reviews; Macro Valuation Trends; Sector Analysis; Political Impact on Markets; and Special Studies. The term Value Expectations is derived from our ability to calculate market expectations embedded in stock prices, sectors and indexes.

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Friday, June 19, 2009

Trading Forex with Cash Back Rebates

Forex trading has become one of the prominent commodity trading businesses in the world today. Forex or Foreign Exchange trading is one of the oldest methods of commodity trading in the world. But the present mode of trading is quite new and much more advanced. These days, it has become a prominent part of the world economy.

Trading forex through an introducing broker

An Introducing broker is the commodity broker who will arrange your Forex deals. As a rule, such brokers do not take any fee, security, guarantees etc. from you. All the money for trading exchanges is put under the control of a futures Commission merchant (clearing firm) which does all the trading.

In short, an introduction broker is the link between you and future commission merchant and facilitates Forex trading by literally "introducing" you to a future commission merchant. Introducing broker remains your point of contact, which in turn, remains in contact of the future commission merchant. Thus, whenever you feel like you should trade in your commodity, you can contact the IB and he will talk to the future commission merchant and convey your thoughts.

Until few years back, most people who wanted to do Forex trading didn't have much choice amongst Introducing brokers. But now, this profession has become much more formal and dealers can now hire qualified and registered IBs. Some people think that IBs are the middlemen between them and clearing firms. But this is not true. An IB is not a middleman as he never holds any of the dealer's money and does not interfere in his dealings.

Hiring an introducing broker has numerous benefits.

Hiring an IB increases your value in the clearing firm. As most such firms deal in millions of dollars, they don't generally pay much attention to smaller clients. You will have a hard time getting your grievances addressed if you are a small individual dealer. Suppose, you have only invested a small amount like $1,000 then you will not be in the priority list as a client of the clearing firm. But if you are associated with an introducing broker who has given them clients worth $100,000, then your value will increase manifolds.

Extra Services

Most introducing brokers offer many other value added services to their customers. They generally give these services to keep you with them, as they are getting paid by the clearing firm according to the numbers of clients they bring. Therefore, they offer their clients added services like advanced charting software and free eSignal to improve your trading performance. But make sure that you use the software intelligently and cautiously.

Trading with Rebates

As most introducing brokers get paid on each round turn traded by their clients, many such brokers give forex rebates to their clients on every transaction done by them. This can be extremely beneficial for you as even a small rebate on every trade, can add up to a big amount at the end of the month. This is because of the high frequency of trades in Forex markets.

If you are not new to the Forex trading world, then you must have heard about cash backs or rebates on them. Getting cash backs on Forex trading is a new concept, but has become very popular. In fact, there are many companies out there that only and expressly work towards providing cash backs or rebates to their clients such as ForexCashBack.com.

As the world of Forex trading expands, the competition in it has also increased. There are many introducing brokers in the market these days and all of them are in search of big and regular clients. Cash backs or rebate is a way to promote the services of a particular clearing firm. This is a tool to get more clients and increase the business.

Benefits of trading forex with cash back rebates

Even though the saying goes that "there are no free lunches in the world," rebates on Forex trading can be an exception. These cash backs can become a great comforter, in case your Forex trading doesn't turn out the way you wanted them. Clearing firms give you cash backs even if you lose money in the market.

The world of Forex trading has become extremely big in the last few years. Earlier,this used to be the forte of highly qualified and rich businessmen. But with the introduction of IB's and clearing firms, anybody and everybody can venture into this market.


Find more about forex rebates at forexcashback.com.

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Cheap Stocks In The S&P 500 (non-financials)

Below is a summary of 22 AFG Buy Recommendations from the S&P500 Index. The report highlights the 2 companies from each sector (ex. financials) that have the most attractive value score and are currently rated Buys by The Applied Finance Group, Ltd. (AFG). Factors used to derive a AFG’s recommendation include: Expected change in Economic Margins, Intrinsic Value, and Management Quality.

We also ran a VE analysis and provided the results. The VE analysis of each company is used to identify implied sales growth expectations versus what the company has delivered historically in sales growth over the past 5 years. Measuring the spread between a company’s VE sales growth expectations and what it has historically delivered should give you a good idea of which companies have the best chance of meeting or exceeding those expectations, and thus are more likely to outperform.

Cheapest Companies In The S&P 500 By Sector (ex. Financials)

View Stocks Here

Click Here, to see results of our portfolio performance using AFG's Buy/Sell criteria

A brief description of AFG's buy criteria variables is below:

Economic Margin - A corporate performance measurement that addresses the gaps in GAAP, eliminating distortions caused by accounting policies to measure what a company is truly earning above or below their cost of capital.

Valuation Model – Using AFG’s modified discounted cash flow model to measure the intrinsic value of a firm compared to its peers.

Management Quality – Assess management’s ability to make wealth creating decisions.

Applied Finance Group’s (AFG’s) Value Score defined - A score which represents the ranked percent to target (deviation between stock’s current trading price and AFG’s current default target price) or attractiveness (upside) relative to the universe. A Value Score of 100 is the most undervalued and 0 is the most overvalued company in the universe.

VE Sales Growth - AFG’s Value Expectations allows us to understand the Sales Growth, EBITDA Margin, and Asset Turnover a company has to deliver in the future to justify its current trading price. In theory, if the imbedded future performance is very conservative relative to the company’s historical performance, the stock is regarded as undervalued. The VE Sales Growth displays the implied future Sales Growth of the company assuming their EBITDA Margins and Asset Turnovers stay at the 5 year historic median levels.


ValueExpectations.com, by the founders of The Applied Finance Group and Toreador Research and Trading, is a stock blog and investment newsletter that provides institutional quality equity research using AFG’s proprietary Economic Margin framework.

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